Economic Risk Indicator

MBI’s Economic Risk Indicator quantifies the probability of significant economic disruptions within the next 10 years at the regional level – expressed as an internationally comparable percentage.

Analysts are standing in front of a world map on which the political risk indicator is plotted.

How can the probability of economic disruptions be calculated statistically?

MBI’s economic risk indicator summarises data on the economic situation, providing a clear and easy-to-interpret metric. As a result, the indicator enables a quick, internationally comparable assessment of regional economic risks, helping companies to integrate complex socio-economic developments into strategic decisions such as location selection, investment planning and regional market potential evaluation.

What data sources are used to determine the economic risk?

The indicator incorporates a wide range of internationally comparable data, including macroeconomic trends, demographic developments, socio-structural data and key economic metrics at regional level.

What methodology is used to calculate the probability of economic disruptions?

Assessment of the expected risk over the next ten years based on past developments and the current economic situation.
Result: Probability percentage of at least two significant economic impairments occurring within the next 10 years.

Is the economic risk indicator designed for real-time monitoring of economic crisis or for long-term strategic planning?

The economic risk indicator is not designed for daily reporting of individual events. Instead, it focuses on the systematic and long-term tracking of parameters that influence the probability of impairments.

Advantages of MBI’s economic Risk Indicators

Percentage probability of occurrence: Political risk is expressed as a clear and intuitive probability value.
International comparability: Although political systems and societies differ between countries, the risk index remains internationally comparable.
Time-series based forecasting: The model is based on a comprehensive and continuous data foundation dating back to
Regional level instead of country-level only: Conflicts increasingly escalate at the regional level. Granular data capture regional differences in detail and enable more differentiated analyses.
Reliable data source: Globally consistent and comparable socioeconomic data from MBI.

Use cases for economic Data

Strategic planning of market entry
Analize regional markets
Quantify regional sales opportunities / market potentials
Identify unused market potential
Site selection and supply chain planning

Which variables are included in the Economic risk indicator dataset?

CTRYCODE	Two digit country code by ISO 3166
ADMINCODE	Administrative code
NAME	Administrative level: Name of administrative area
RISK_B	10-year Economic Risk – Probability of significant impairment: percentage

Additional Risk Indicators

Sound decision-making in areas such as site selection, investment, and supply chain management requires the consideration of multiple types of risk.
The political risk indicator is part of MBI’s four-dimensional international risk indicator.

Political

Violence Potential & Risk of War

Social

Social inequality and structural differences in the population

Economic

Operational and market risks for industries and companies

Ecological

Natural hazards and other climate change threats

Key Differentiators

Globally consistent and comparable data

Strict quality control

Individual consulting and support

Continuous updating after every release

100 % GDPR compliant

Discover More Advantages

Easy access to a variety of MBI data
• Datalink Desktop
• Datalink Rest API

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