Political Risk Indicators
MBI’s Political Risk Indicators quantify the probability of violence and war within the next 10 years at the regional level – expressed as an internationally comparable percentage.
How can the probability of violence or war be calculated statistically?
Political risks are often described qualitatively – MBI makes them measurable.
The political risk indicator consists of two risk indices, which can be used individually or combined into an overall value:
- Violence Potential Index – probability of significant violent conflict
- War Risk Index – probability of war or war-like conflict
The analysis is based on global automated and curated text analysis of media and content platforms, capturing relevant events and incorporating qualitative assessments.
The approach identifies different dimensions of political risk at the regional level, enabling a distinction between violent conflicts and war-like conflicts. The probability of violence and war within the next ten years is calculated through statistical analysis of current and time-series data.
Result: A percentage probability of occurrence within a 10-year period.
The political risk indicator is not designed for daily reporting of individual events. Instead, it focuses on the systematic and long-term tracking of parameters that influence the probability of conflict.
What is the Difference between Violence Potential and Risk of War?
Different forms of violence are identified and assigned to two risk categories.
The classification takes into account:
- the number of forces involved
- the types of weapons used
- the number of fatalities
Violence Potential Index
The focus is on internal unrest and violent confrontations, which may include:
- demonstrations
- strikes
- political unrest
- civil disobedience
Risk of War Index
The focus is on severe threats related to war-like actions, including:
- armed conflicts
- cross-border disputes
- terrorist attacks
- other serious security threat
Which variables are included in the political risk indicator dataset?
| CTRYCODE | Two digit country code by ISO 3166 |
| ADMINCODE | Administrative code |
| NAME | Administrative level: Name of administrative area |
RISK_A1 | 10-year Political Risk – Probability of Violence: percentage |
| RISK_A2 | 10-year Political Risk – Probability of War: percentage |
Additional Risk Indicators
Sound decision-making in areas such as site selection, investment, and supply chain management requires the consideration of multiple types of risk.
The political risk indicator is part of MBI’s four-dimensional international risk indicator.
Political
Violence Potential & Risk of War
Social
Social inequality and structural differences in the population
Economic
Operational and market risks for industries and companies
Ecological
Natural hazards and other climate change threats
Key Differentiators
Globally consistent and comparable data
Strict quality control
Individual consulting and support
Continuous updating after every release
100 % GDPR compliant
DATA FORMATS
cvs | json
Geo Formats:
Esri Shapefile (.shp) | Esri Geodatabase (.gdb) | MapInfo (.tab) | GeoJSON | GeoParquet (.parquet) | GeoPackage (.gpkg) | more on request
UPDATES
Quarterly updates
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