Trump’s Second Term: Global Uncertainties and Implications for Businesses

Donald Trump, inaugurated this week as President of the United States once again, is back in the international political spotlight. His decisions and methods are closely monitored by experts worldwide, raising questions about their potential impact on international relations. How will his presidency influence global dynamics? Could the U.S. reconsider its role within NATO, and what consequences might this have for Europe’s security? These questions highlight the uncertainties that accompany his policies. In this article, we explore key issues and their relevance for businesses.

Unconventional Methods and Their Consequences

Donald Trump is known for his unconventional approach to politics. His priorities are heavily focused on economic issues, often viewing international relations as a means to achieve economic goals. His approach is pragmatic, characterized by direct communication and strategic use of leverage to achieve his objectives. However, it remains unclear how far he is willing to go and what the long-term consequences of this approach might be. This unpredictability is a core aspect of his leadership style, generating uncertainty and volatility both nationally and internationally. For policymakers and businesses alike, this presents a significant challenge.

Global Conflict Dynamics in Focus

The evolution and dynamics of global conflicts are shaped by various factors. Analyses from the MBI CONIAS conflict database reveal that international tensions and conflicts increased significantly during Trump’s first term (2017–2021). Domestic unrest and movements, such as the Black Lives Matter protests and the January 6, 2021, Capitol riots, exemplify the internal tensions within the U.S.

Key Challenges and Questions

Several major areas of conflict are expected to shape Trump’s second term, bringing considerable uncertainties:

1. U.S.-China, BRICS: The economic and geopolitical rivalry between the U.S. and China remains a dominant issue. The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are increasingly seeking ways to strengthen their position in the global power structure.
2. Russia-Ukraine War: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to challenge European security and stability. Its further development has the potential to create significant geopolitical consequences.
3. Trade Relations with Europe: Trade conflicts and potential sanctions could impact economic cooperation between the U.S. and Europe. Companies may face tough decisions on how to position themselves in this context.

In addition, stabilizing the Middle East remains a central global issue. Existing and emerging conflicts could escalate into significant political risks across the world.

Relevance for Businesses

These developments pose substantial challenges for businesses. Trade conflicts, sanctions, or unstable political conditions can create economic risks. It is becoming increasingly important for companies to anticipate potential scenarios and prepare accordingly.

Data-Driven Decision-Making as a Foundation

A solid data foundation is essential for businesses to make informed decisions and avoid costly mistakes. Our analyses and political risk data provide the necessary transparency to detect conflicts early, monitor their developments closely, and assess potential consequences in a timely manner. With CONIAS Risk Intelligence, companies can proactively implement countermeasures, minimize risks, and avoid damage. Without this foundation, there is a risk of being caught off guard by dynamic changes, leading to strategic missteps.

Rely on our expertise and contact us to discuss your specific needs and how our data can help you navigate an uncertain world with greater confidence.

About the Author:
Dr. Nicolas Schwank
Chief Data Scientist Political Risk
Michael Bauer International GmbH