A war between China and Taiwan? MBI CONIAS early warning indicators point upwards
CONIAS Conflict Spotlight: China (Taiwan)
Just yesterday, there were news that a high-ranking U.S. admiral warned about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan within the next six years. This is one of several similar reports that have been published in context of the China Taiwan Conflict in recent weeks. For example, only a few weeks ago in late January China itself warned representatives in Taiwan that any further efforts towards independence “would mean war”.
MBI CONIAS not only pays attention to current events, but also includes historical developments in all analyses
Is Taiwan a – self-proclaimed – independent state or rather a lapsed province of China, like the People’s Republic of China believes it to be? This dissent has been going on since the end of the civil war in China, the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 and the exile of the non-communist government on the island of Taiwan.
Diplomatic ties started to deteriorate in 2016, leading to high tension in 2019 with China often violating Taiwanese airspace with fighter jets and territorial waters with dredgers. Taiwan on the opposite is preparing for a Chinese invasion.
Moreover, China – claiming nearly the whole sea within its „nine-dash-line” – and the USA as main counterparts are practicing military maneuvers to show force in the conflict of South China Sea. Due to many overlaps to this conflict and the importance of Taiwanese computer technology for the western nations, further escalation is not totally unlikely anymore.
A complete picture of the situation only emerges if all political conflicts in and around China are included in the analysis
The China Taiwan Conflict is only one of 16 ongoing conflicts directly related to China monitored by the CONIAS Risk Intelligence database. In addition, we observe nearly 900 other conflicts, some of which also touch on China’s security. Only by combining all observations, the total risk value for China and each of its provinces can be calculated.
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Sources: The Guardian, BBC